Source: Business Insider
We’ve reached peak globalisation, says Capital Economics, and emerging economies like China will suffer. That means the widespread assumption that China will leapfrog the US for the title of the world’s biggest economy is likely wrong. “If we’re right, then the world in 2050 will look very different to what the consensus expects,” the economists said. Visit Business Insider for more stories. We’ve reached peak globalization, says Capital Economics — “In fact, a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely.” The group’s economists, in a note on Monday titled, “The world in 2050: where and why the consensus may be wrong,” wrote that the fallout would hit emerging economies the hardest. “A rollback of globalisation would counteract any technology-driven pick-up in productivity growth over the next decade or so,” says Neil Shearing, group chief economist. The takeaway: “The widespread assumption that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy is likely to be proved wrong.” Market watchers have predicted the boom in China’s economy as an unstoppable Goliath that will soon leapfrog the US to the No. 1 spot.